Leading Economic Indicators – February 2023

Overview

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

The Monthly Leading Economic Indicators report highlights changes in Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and inflation, interest & exchange rates. In addition, the report details changes in selected indicators of international trade, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, building and construction, tourism and transport.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation

The CPI rose by 0.6%, indicating a slight increase in inflation from 8.98% to 9.23% between January and February 2023.

Currency and Interest Rates

The Kenyan Shilling depreciated against major trading currencies, while the yield rate for the 91-day Treasury bills increased from 9.19% to 9.33% between November and December 2022.

Agricultural Indicators

Tea production increased, while the price of processed tea slightly declined. Additionally, there was an increase in cane deliveries and vegetable exports, but the value of vegetable exports decreased.

Stock Market Performance

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 share index decreased, with a notable decline in both the number of shares traded and equities market turnover between January and February 2023.

Energy Sector

Local electricity generation decreased, and there was a slight increase in the international price of the OPEC crude oil basket. Domestic retail oil prices for various fuel types remained stable.

Telecommunications and Technology

Mobile money transactions and the value of imports for telecommunication equipment increased between January and February 2023.

Transport and Tourism

The number of visitors arriving through major airports decreased, while port throughput at the port of Mombasa also dropped between October and December 2022.

Manufacturing and Industrial Production

Cement production and consumption decreased, while sugar production increased. Vehicle assembly and milk uptake showed fluctuations in production and consumption.

What are Leading Economic Indicators?

Leading Economic Indicators are statistical metrics used to forecast future economic trends and changes, providing insights into the direction of the economy before it becomes apparent in other data points.

NSE All Share Index

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) All Share Index is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of all the listed companies on the Nairobi Stock Exchange.

PMI

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on monthly surveys of private sector companies.

GDP Growth Rate

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders over a specific period of time.

Inflation Rate

Inflation rate is the percentage increase in the average price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, usually a year.

Trade Balance

The trade balance is the difference between a country’s total value of exports and imports of goods and services.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6 per cent from an index of 129.29 in January 2023 to 130.13 in February 2023. The overall rate of inflation slightly rose from 8.98 per cent to 9.23 per cent over the same period. In February 2023, the Kenyan Shilling depreciated against all major trading currencies. The av- erage yield rate for the 91-day Treasury bills, which is a benchmark for the general trend of interest rates rose from 9.19 per cent in November 2022 to 9.33 per cent in December 2022.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 share index decreased from 1,657points in January 2023 to 1,647 points in February 2023. During the same period, the total number of shares traded decreased from 333 mil- lion to 170 million. The Equities Market turnover declined by 41.1 per cent to KSh 4.6 billion in February 2023 compared to KSh 7.8 billion recorded in the month of January 2023.

Broad money supply (M3), a key indicator for monetary policy formulation, increased from KSh 4,460.19 billion in November 2022 to KSh 4,534.50 billion in December 2022. The value of Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves increased from KSh 1,392.57 billion in November 2022 to KSh 1,494.20 billion in December 2022. During the same period, the value of Net Foreign Exchange Reserves rose from KSh 278.29 billion to KSh 285.35 billion.

Agriculture

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

The quantity of coffee auctioned at the Nairobi Coffee exchange was 3,409.48 MT in Septem- ber 2022. The quantity of produced tea rose from 38,196.24 MT in September 2022 to 50,466.37 MT in October 2022. The price of processed tea slightly declined from KSh 303.52 per kilogram in November 2022 to KSh 294.08 per kilogram in December 2022. The annual av- erage price of processed tea stood at KSh 292.43 per kilogram in the year 2022.

The quantity of cane deliveries increased from 680.00 thousand metric tonnes in September 2022 to 836.55 thousand metric tonnes in October 2022.

The quantity of vegetable exports increased from 6,935.02 MT in December 2022 to 8,336.23 MT in January

2023. However, the value of vegetable exports decreased from KSh 2,121.68 million to KSh 1,947.72 million during the same period. The quantity of Cut-Flowers and Fruits exported was 10,951.99 MT and 7,110.58 MT respectively while their value stood at 5,982.39 million and 919.67 million respectively during the same period.

International Trade

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

Volume of trade dropped from KSh 267.48 billion in January 2023 to KSh 251.94 billion in February 2023. The value of total exports increased from KSh 72.93 billion in January 2023 to KSh 76.65 billion in Febru- ary 2023, the value of imports decreased from KSh 194.44 billion in January 2023 to KSh 175.29 billion in February 2023. Domestic exports by Broad Economic Category (BEC) indicated that food and beverages was the main export category in February 2023 accounting for 38.54 per cent of the domestic exports, while non-food industrial supplies accounted for 28.18 per cent of the domestic exports.

Quantity of coffee exported increased by twofold from 1,921.19 MT in January 2023 to 3,877.74 MT in Feb- ruary 2023. Additionally, its value increased significantly from KSh 1,217.32 million to KSh 2,569.47 million over the same period. The quantity of tea exported slightly decreased from 44,556.08 MT in January 2023 to 44,328.68 MT in February 2023. The value of exported tea dropped from KSh 13,519.65 million to KSh 13,510.62 million over the same period.

Imports by BEC indicate that non-food industrial supplies were the main import category in February 2023 with a share of 34.08 per cent. Fuel and lubricants; Machinery & other capital equipment; and transport equipment accounted for 29.43, 10.99 and 7.81 per cent of the total value of imports, respectively. Food and beverages accounted for 10.22 per cent of the total imports in February 2023.

Energy

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

Total local electricity generation de- creased from 1,067.36 million KWh in January 2023 to 960.92 million KWh in February 2023. In the international mar- ket, the price of the OPEC crude oil bas- ket increased slightly from US Dollars 81.62 per barrel in January 2023 to US Dollars 81.88 per barrel in December 2023.

The national average domestic retail oil prices of motor gasoline premium, light diesel and Kerosene was KSh 178.05, KSh 162.91 and KSh 146.86 per litre respectively in February 2023. Charcoal prices averaged KSh 68.43 per Kg while the price of a 13-Kg cylinder of gas averaged KSh 3,101.94 during the same period.

Manufacturing, Building & Construction

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

The quantity of cement produced de- creased from 821,768 MT in Novem- ber 2022 to 774,124 MT in December 2022. Consumption of cement was 752,852 MT in December 2022.Sugar production increased from 60,388 MT in September 2022 to 74,082 MT in October 2022. Pro- duction of assembled vehicles de- creased from 1,113 units in October

2022 to 906 units in Novemebr 2022. Milk uptake in the formal sector rose from 59.27 million liters in De- cember 2022 to 61.76 million litres in January 2023.

ICT, Tourism & Transport

Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023

The total number of mobile money transactions was 198.31 million in January 2023 while their value was KSh 589.30 billion. The value of imports for telecommunication equipment increased from KSh 1.55 billion in Jan- uary 2023 to KSh 2.33 billion in February 2023.

The total number of visitors arriving through Jomo Kenyatta (JKIA) and Moi International Airports (MIA) de- creased from 120,806 persons in December 2022 to 114,048 persons in January 2023. The number of pas- sengers who landed at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) increased from 198,166 persons in No- vember 2022 to 264,022 persons in December 2022. The Passengers who embarked at JKIA by port of des- tination increased from 206,110 persons to 243,415 persons over the same period. Total monthly throughput at the port of Mombasa dropped from 2,897.64 thousand metric tonnes in October 2022 to 2,673.60 thousand metric tonnes in December 2022.

Charts, Tables & Figures

List of Tables

Below is a list of tables you can read by downloading the report

Table 1(a): Kenya Consumer Price Indices

Table 1(b): Kenya Inflation rate

Table 2: Monthly Mean Foreign Exchange rates of Kenyan Shilling against Selected Major Currencies

Table 3: Interest rate (%)

Table 4: Nairobi Securities Exchange

Table 5(a): Money Supply

Table 5(b): Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 6: Coffee Sales and Prices*

Table 7: Tea Production and Auction Prices

Table 8: Cane Deliveries

Table 9(a): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Maize, 2022 (per Kg)

Table 9(b): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Maize, 2023 (per Kg)

Table 9(C): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Beans, 2022 (per Kg)

Table 9(d): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Beans, 2023 (per Kg)

Table 10: Exports of Coffee and Tea

Table 11: Monthly Exports of Fresh Horticultural Produce

Table 12: External Trade

Table 13(a): Major Destinations of Domestic Exports

Table 13(b): Domestic Exports by Broad Economic Category

Table 14 (a) Major Origins of Imports

Table 14(b): Imports by Broad Economic Category

Table 14 (c): Mobile Money Transactions

Table 14(d): International trade in ICT

Table 15(a): Local Electricity Generation by Source

Table 15(b): Generation and Consumption of Electricity

Table 15(c): Consumption of Petroleum Fuels

Table 15(d): Average Retail Prices for Selected Fuel Products within Nairobi

Table 15(e): Average Retail Prices for Selected Fuels in Kenya (National Average Retail Prices)

Table 15(f): Opec Reference basket and Murban Crude Oil Prices

Table 16: Value of Building Plans Approved for Nairobi City County

Table 17(a): Domestic Production of Sugar

Table 17(b): Production of Soft Drinks

Table 17(c): Production of Assembled Vehicles

Table 17(d): Production of Galvanized Sheets

Table 17(e): Cement Production and Consumption

Table 17(f): Milk Intakes in the Formal Sector

Table 18: Visitor Arrivals through J.K.I.A and M.I.A

Table 19(a): Jomo Kenyatta international Airport-Embarked Passengers by Port of Destination

Table 19(b): Jomo Kenyatta international Airport- Landed Passengers by Port of Origin

Table 19(c): New Vehicle Registration

Table 19d): Passenger and Cargo Movement on the Standard Gauge Railway

Table 19(e): Monthly Cargo Throughput at the port of Mombasa

List Of Figures

Below is a list of figures you can find in the report

Figure 1: Inflation rates

Figure 2: End of Month Mean Exchange rate of Kenya Shillings against Major Selected Currencies

Figure 4: Coffee Sales at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

Figure 5: Tea Production

Figure 6: Cane Deliveries

Figure 7: Electricity Generation by Source.

Figure 8: Average Prices for Liquefied Petroleum Gas in Kenya (‘000 KSh per 13 Kg cylinder)

Figure 9: Milk Intake in the Formal Sector

Figure 10: Visitor Arrivals through J.K.I.A and M.I.A

About Report

Statistical Releases
Leading Economic Indicators
February
2023

Overview

The Monthly Leading Economic Indicators report highlights changes in Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and inflation, interest & exchange rates. In addition, the report details changes in selected indicators of international trade, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, building and construction, tourism and transport.
Leading Economic Indicators - February 2023

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