The Monthly Leading Economic Indicators report highlights changes in Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and inflation, interest & exchange rates. In addition, the report details changes in selected indicators of international trade, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, building and construction, tourism and transport.
Leading Economic Indicators – February 2023
Overview
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
What are Leading Economic Indicators?
Leading Economic Indicators are statistical metrics used to forecast future economic trends and changes, providing insights into the direction of the economy before it becomes apparent in other data points.
Macroeconomic Indicators
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6 per cent from an index of 129.29 in January 2023 to 130.13 in February 2023. The overall rate of inflation slightly rose from 8.98 per cent to 9.23 per cent over the same period. In February 2023, the Kenyan Shilling depreciated against all major trading currencies. The av- erage yield rate for the 91-day Treasury bills, which is a benchmark for the general trend of interest rates rose from 9.19 per cent in November 2022 to 9.33 per cent in December 2022.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 share index decreased from 1,657points in January 2023 to 1,647 points in February 2023. During the same period, the total number of shares traded decreased from 333 mil- lion to 170 million. The Equities Market turnover declined by 41.1 per cent to KSh 4.6 billion in February 2023 compared to KSh 7.8 billion recorded in the month of January 2023.
Broad money supply (M3), a key indicator for monetary policy formulation, increased from KSh 4,460.19 billion in November 2022 to KSh 4,534.50 billion in December 2022. The value of Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves increased from KSh 1,392.57 billion in November 2022 to KSh 1,494.20 billion in December 2022. During the same period, the value of Net Foreign Exchange Reserves rose from KSh 278.29 billion to KSh 285.35 billion.
Agriculture
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
The quantity of coffee auctioned at the Nairobi Coffee exchange was 3,409.48 MT in Septem- ber 2022. The quantity of produced tea rose from 38,196.24 MT in September 2022 to 50,466.37 MT in October 2022. The price of processed tea slightly declined from KSh 303.52 per kilogram in November 2022 to KSh 294.08 per kilogram in December 2022. The annual av- erage price of processed tea stood at KSh 292.43 per kilogram in the year 2022.
The quantity of cane deliveries increased from 680.00 thousand metric tonnes in September 2022 to 836.55 thousand metric tonnes in October 2022.
The quantity of vegetable exports increased from 6,935.02 MT in December 2022 to 8,336.23 MT in January
2023. However, the value of vegetable exports decreased from KSh 2,121.68 million to KSh 1,947.72 million during the same period. The quantity of Cut-Flowers and Fruits exported was 10,951.99 MT and 7,110.58 MT respectively while their value stood at 5,982.39 million and 919.67 million respectively during the same period.
International Trade
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
Volume of trade dropped from KSh 267.48 billion in January 2023 to KSh 251.94 billion in February 2023. The value of total exports increased from KSh 72.93 billion in January 2023 to KSh 76.65 billion in Febru- ary 2023, the value of imports decreased from KSh 194.44 billion in January 2023 to KSh 175.29 billion in February 2023. Domestic exports by Broad Economic Category (BEC) indicated that food and beverages was the main export category in February 2023 accounting for 38.54 per cent of the domestic exports, while non-food industrial supplies accounted for 28.18 per cent of the domestic exports.
Quantity of coffee exported increased by twofold from 1,921.19 MT in January 2023 to 3,877.74 MT in Feb- ruary 2023. Additionally, its value increased significantly from KSh 1,217.32 million to KSh 2,569.47 million over the same period. The quantity of tea exported slightly decreased from 44,556.08 MT in January 2023 to 44,328.68 MT in February 2023. The value of exported tea dropped from KSh 13,519.65 million to KSh 13,510.62 million over the same period.
Imports by BEC indicate that non-food industrial supplies were the main import category in February 2023 with a share of 34.08 per cent. Fuel and lubricants; Machinery & other capital equipment; and transport equipment accounted for 29.43, 10.99 and 7.81 per cent of the total value of imports, respectively. Food and beverages accounted for 10.22 per cent of the total imports in February 2023.
Energy
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
Total local electricity generation de- creased from 1,067.36 million KWh in January 2023 to 960.92 million KWh in February 2023. In the international mar- ket, the price of the OPEC crude oil bas- ket increased slightly from US Dollars 81.62 per barrel in January 2023 to US Dollars 81.88 per barrel in December 2023.
The national average domestic retail oil prices of motor gasoline premium, light diesel and Kerosene was KSh 178.05, KSh 162.91 and KSh 146.86 per litre respectively in February 2023. Charcoal prices averaged KSh 68.43 per Kg while the price of a 13-Kg cylinder of gas averaged KSh 3,101.94 during the same period.
Manufacturing, Building & Construction
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
The quantity of cement produced de- creased from 821,768 MT in Novem- ber 2022 to 774,124 MT in December 2022. Consumption of cement was 752,852 MT in December 2022.Sugar production increased from 60,388 MT in September 2022 to 74,082 MT in October 2022. Pro- duction of assembled vehicles de- creased from 1,113 units in October
2022 to 906 units in Novemebr 2022. Milk uptake in the formal sector rose from 59.27 million liters in De- cember 2022 to 61.76 million litres in January 2023.
ICT, Tourism & Transport
Leading Economic Indicators - Feb 2023
The total number of mobile money transactions was 198.31 million in January 2023 while their value was KSh 589.30 billion. The value of imports for telecommunication equipment increased from KSh 1.55 billion in Jan- uary 2023 to KSh 2.33 billion in February 2023.
The total number of visitors arriving through Jomo Kenyatta (JKIA) and Moi International Airports (MIA) de- creased from 120,806 persons in December 2022 to 114,048 persons in January 2023. The number of pas- sengers who landed at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) increased from 198,166 persons in No- vember 2022 to 264,022 persons in December 2022. The Passengers who embarked at JKIA by port of des- tination increased from 206,110 persons to 243,415 persons over the same period. Total monthly throughput at the port of Mombasa dropped from 2,897.64 thousand metric tonnes in October 2022 to 2,673.60 thousand metric tonnes in December 2022.
Charts, Tables & Figures
List of Tables
Below is a list of tables you can read by downloading the report
Table 1(a): Kenya Consumer Price Indices
Table 1(b): Kenya Inflation rate
Table 2: Monthly Mean Foreign Exchange rates of Kenyan Shilling against Selected Major Currencies
Table 3: Interest rate (%)
Table 4: Nairobi Securities Exchange
Table 5(a): Money Supply
Table 5(b): Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves
Table 6: Coffee Sales and Prices*
Table 7: Tea Production and Auction Prices
Table 8: Cane Deliveries
Table 9(a): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Maize, 2022 (per Kg)
Table 9(b): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Maize, 2023 (per Kg)
Table 9(C): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Beans, 2022 (per Kg)
Table 9(d): Average Monthly Retail Prices for Dry Beans, 2023 (per Kg)
Table 10: Exports of Coffee and Tea
Table 11: Monthly Exports of Fresh Horticultural Produce
Table 12: External Trade
Table 13(a): Major Destinations of Domestic Exports
Table 13(b): Domestic Exports by Broad Economic Category
Table 14 (a) Major Origins of Imports
Table 14(b): Imports by Broad Economic Category
Table 14 (c): Mobile Money Transactions
Table 14(d): International trade in ICT
Table 15(a): Local Electricity Generation by Source
Table 15(b): Generation and Consumption of Electricity
Table 15(c): Consumption of Petroleum Fuels
Table 15(d): Average Retail Prices for Selected Fuel Products within Nairobi
Table 15(e): Average Retail Prices for Selected Fuels in Kenya (National Average Retail Prices)
Table 15(f): Opec Reference basket and Murban Crude Oil Prices
Table 16: Value of Building Plans Approved for Nairobi City County
Table 17(a): Domestic Production of Sugar
Table 17(b): Production of Soft Drinks
Table 17(c): Production of Assembled Vehicles
Table 17(d): Production of Galvanized Sheets
Table 17(e): Cement Production and Consumption
Table 17(f): Milk Intakes in the Formal Sector
Table 18: Visitor Arrivals through J.K.I.A and M.I.A
Table 19(a): Jomo Kenyatta international Airport-Embarked Passengers by Port of Destination
Table 19(b): Jomo Kenyatta international Airport- Landed Passengers by Port of Origin
Table 19(c): New Vehicle Registration
Table 19d): Passenger and Cargo Movement on the Standard Gauge Railway
Table 19(e): Monthly Cargo Throughput at the port of Mombasa
List Of Figures
Below is a list of figures you can find in the report
Figure 1: Inflation rates
Figure 2: End of Month Mean Exchange rate of Kenya Shillings against Major Selected Currencies
Figure 4: Coffee Sales at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange
Figure 5: Tea Production
Figure 6: Cane Deliveries
Figure 7: Electricity Generation by Source.
Figure 8: Average Prices for Liquefied Petroleum Gas in Kenya (‘000 KSh per 13 Kg cylinder)
Figure 9: Milk Intake in the Formal Sector
Figure 10: Visitor Arrivals through J.K.I.A and M.I.A