Kenya National Bureau of Statistics hereby releases Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and rates of inflation for December, 2016. These numbers have been generated using data collected during the second and third weeks of the month under review. The prices were obtained from selected retail outlets in 25 data collection zones which are located in Nairobi and in 13 other urban centers.
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The economy is estimated to have expanded by 5.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 compared to a growth of 6.0 per cent in the same quarter of 2015. The key macroeconomic indicators remained largely stable during the third quarter of 2016. Inflation was contained within the Central Bank’s target to average at 6.3 per cent compared to an average of 6.1 per cent during the same quarter in 2015. The slight increase in inflation was primarily due to increases in prices of food and beverages during the period under review. This rise was however countered by significant decreases in prices of utilities and transport.
Internationally, Murban ADNOC prices (US$/barrel) declined by 9.3 per cent during the quarter compared to the same quarter of 2015. In the money market, the Kenyan Shilling strengthened
against the US dollar, Euro, Sterling pound, South African Rand and the Tanzanian Shilling but weakened against the Yen and the Ugandan Shilling during the quarter compared to a similar period in 2015.
The amendment of the Banking Act in August 2016 to cap the lending rates to a maximum of 4.0 per cent above the Central Bank Rate (CBR) resulted to a substantial decline in the interest rates during the month of September to 13.84 percent from 16.75 per cent in the same month of 2015. The current account deficit
narrowed by 10.4 per cent to a deficit KSh 100,687 million in the third quarter of 2016 from a deficit of KSh 112,377 million during the same quarter of 2015. The overall balance of payments also improved from a deficit of KSh 51,356 million in the third quarter of 2015 to KSh 5,710 million during the quarter under review.
Generally, the economic growth was well spread although most of the sectors of the economy recorded slowed growths. Accommodation and restaurants; transport and storage; wholesale and retail trade; information and communication; health; professional, administrative and support; and public administration registered improved growths during the review quarter (see table
Performance of the various agricultural crops varied widely with production of vegetables, cut flowers and milk estimated to have improved significantly while that of maize, tea, coffee and fruits recorded declines. Consequently, the growth of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent during the quarter under review compared to a growth of 5.5 during the same quarter in 2015. Activities of the manufacturing and the construction industries recorded notable slowdown in growths. Figure 1 depicts the performance of the Kenyan economy during the third quarters since 2012. Download Third Quarter 2016 GDP Release
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) compiles Balance of Payments (BOP) statistics in line with the international compilation standards and methods. The current compilation standard is the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) which is in use. Balance of Payments is a statistical statement that shows transactions between residents and nonresidents during a given period. The BOP statistics summarises transactions in goods, services, primary and secondary income, capital account and financial items between an economy and the rest of world. These statistics assists an economy in assessing its ability to meet its external financial needs.
The third quarter 2016 BOP statistical release is a standalone, a departure from the past, where BOP statistics were included in the quarterly Gross Domestic Product publication. This has been necessitated by the growing demand by users for more detailed BOP statistics. Balance of Payments Summary
The current account deficit narrowed by 10.4 per cent from KSh 112,377 million in the third quarter of 2015 to KSh 100,687 million in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Merchandise trade balance, which significantly influence the current account balance, expanded by 2.3 per cent to a deficit of KSh 217,999 million in the third quarter of 2016 reflecting a faster decrease in exports compared to the decrease in imports on f.o.b basis. Net earnings from international trade in services increased by 69.8 per cent to KSh 34,745 million.
The increase was on account of increased travel receipts boosted by conference tourism during the third quarter of 2016. The surplus in the travel account more than doubled from KSh 12,281 million in the third quarter of 2015 to KSh 25,868 million in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Remittance inflows from Kenyans living in the diaspora continued to grow during the quarter under review to register KSh 43,569 million from KSh 40,627 million in the third quarter of 2015.
The improvement in the services account during the quarter under review contributed to the narrowing of the current account deficit. 3 1.4. Net financial inflows went up by 3.2 per cent from KSh 157,615 million in the third quarter of 2015 to KSh 162,578 million in the third quarter of 2016. This was partly as a result of disbursements towards the Standard Gauge Railway. Gross official reserves increased to KSh 830.6 billion as at the end of third quarter of 2016 from KSh 706.7 billion recorded as at the end of the third quarter of 2015. Download Third Quarter 2016 BOP Report
The Leading Economic Indicators highlights trends in Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, international trade, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, building and construction, tourism and transport.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 171.56 points in September 2016 to 172.62 points in October 2016. The overall rate of inflation rose from 6.34 per cent to 6.47 per cent during the same period. In October, 2016 the Kenyan Shilling appreciated against the Sterling pound, the Euro, the Japanese Yen and the Ugandan shilling while depreciating against the other currencies.
The average yield rate for the 91-day Treasury bills, which is a benchmark for the general trend of interest rates, decreased from 8.48 per cent in August 2016 to 8.06 per cent in September 2016 while the inter-bank rate declined to 4.87 in September 2016 from 4.96 per cent in August 2016.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 share index expanded from 3,243 points in September 2016 to 3,251 points in October 2016, while the total number of shares traded decreased from 746 million shares to 351 million shares during the same period. The total value of NSE shares traded decreased from KSh 16.87 billion in September 2016 to KSh 7.85 billion in October 2016.
Broad money supply (M3), a key indicator for monetary policy formulation contracted from KSh 2,761.84 billion in September 2016 to KSh 2,750.41 billion in October 2016.Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves declined from KSh 1,070.31 billion in September 2016 to KSh 1,044.71 billion in October 2016. Net Foreign Exchange Reserves decreased from KSh 593.88 billion in September 2016 to KSh 576.03 billion in October 2016. Download Leading Economic Indicators October 2016